Sustainable agricultural intensification requires a precise understanding of how land use decisions influence soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration under varying environmental conditions. We apply causal machine learning to evaluate the heterogeneous impact of winter wheat-based rotations on SOC at the field-level across Lithuania. Using a nationwide dataset collected over five years (2018–2022), including crop types, management practices, soil properties, and environmental conditions, we estimate how the effects of winter wheat-based rotation vary across space and climate. Our results indicate that winter wheat generally enhances SOC levels, but its effectiveness is modulated by climate. Cooler regions experience higher SOC gains, whereas warmer regions show diminished or even negative effects. Future climate projections suggest that the potential for winter wheat carbon sequestration may decline under high-emission scenarios. These findings highlight the importance of localized agricultural strategies that account for climate variability to maximize SOC sequestration and ensure long-term soil sustainability.

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