Surface soil moisture (mrsos) and vertically integrated soil moisture (mrsol) over the top 10 cm should, by definition, be physically consistent in Earth System Models (ESMs). However, an evaluation of nine CMIP6 models reveals substantial inconsistencies: in some models, mrsos and integrated mrsol agree globally; in others, they align only in specific regions; and in a few, they diverge across all grid cells. These discrepancies arise from a combination of factors, including metadata errors, inconsistent variable definitions, or diagnostic sequencing within the model. We demonstrate how such issues can lead to significant biases, even when both variables are present and seemingly well-defined. As model complexity increases and multi-model comparisons become more common, assumptions about variable equivalence may lead to flawed conclusions. This study highlights the need for routine consistency checks, improved metadata standards, and community-wide practices that ensure reliability of derived variables across ESM outputs, particularly in preparation for CMIP7.
Observations from the Little Bunker
Last updated: January 27, 2026 06:22 PM
Atmospheric CO₂
428.6 ppm
+17.4
ppm/year
Atmospheric CH₄
1940.59 ppb
+-0.24
ppb/year
Global Temperature
+1.48 °C
Peak: +1.73°C
World Population
8.1 billion
+67
million/year